🔗 Share this article A Caution to Keir Starmer drawn from His Own History: Without Boldness on Brexit & Europe, His Labour Rivals Will Be. Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation. When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything. During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded. The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union. Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds. Pressure Building on Europe Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more. The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement. And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent. Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work. The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership. Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate. Starmer's Fundamental Doubts Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership. It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU. A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties. But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides. Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018 All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject. Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU. Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”. The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside. It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.