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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."